Energy Realities

Abstract

Fossil fue l technologies in free m ark et se ttings have d i spla ced once
dom inant te chn ologies that are politic ally favored, such as electric ve-
hicl es at the turn of the cen t ury and so lar wat er heat ers in th e 1940s.
Natu ral gas te chn olog ies on the pow er g eneration side and refor-
mulat ed gaso line on the transp ortation side are setting the c omp etitive
pa ce. Thi s co uld con tin ue for d ecades. Fuel-cell h ydrog en veh icles are
de cad es awa y from mass comme rcialization at best, and th ey must get
th eir ene rgy from eithe r fossil fuels d irectl y (on-boa rd con ver sion ) or
indi rectly (electro liza tion) .
Env ironmen talists touting r enewabl e en er gy are really toutin g cer-
ta in ren ewabl e ene rgies at th e expe nse of other ren ewabl e en er g ies.
Their op pos ition to h yd roelectr ic pow er, both with existing facilities an d
new facilities, can alon e cancel out cap acity addit ion s with the m ore
su p p ly-co ns tra ine d wind pow er. Solar pow er is so mu ch m ore ex pe n-
sive th an o the r ren ewabl e and n onr en ew abl e alte rna tives wher e grid
elec tricity is available that not eve n the Dep artm ent of Ener gy for esees
significan t mark et pen etrat ion .
The re is pl ent y of ene rgy hyp e in the air , and th is w ill c ontinu e for
th e ind efin ite futur e. DO E Secr etary Bill Richard son recently a nno unce d
th e Clinton Ad m inis tra tion 's plan for w ind to ha ve a 5% share of th e
Ll .S, gene ra tion m ark et by 2020. That compares to a pr ed iction for w ind
f rom DO E's for eca stin g ar m (Ener gy Inf orm ation Adm ini strati on ) of
.19% by 2020.