A Short-term PV Power Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis Model Based on CEEMDAN and AHA-BP
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13052/dgaej2156-3306.3949Keywords:
PV power prediction, CEEMDAN, artificial hummingbird algorithm, BP neural network, Kernel density estimation, confidence intervalAbstract
The stochastic and intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) generation brings a series of scheduling problems to the power system. An effective prediction of PV power is essential to minimize the impact of uncertainty. Therefore, this paper presents an integrated prediction model with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), the artificial hummingbird algorithm (AHA), and the BP neural network (BPNN) for predicting power generation from PV power plants, and a methodology for uncertainty analysis by using the nonparametric kernel density estimation (NPKDE). First, one month of PV power is decomposed into an array of components using CEEMDAN. Then, the weights and thresholds of the BPNN are optimized by using AHA. These components are trained using the BPNN. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the components, and NPKDE is employed to compute the probability density and confidence interval of the prediction error. The proposed prediction method demonstrates superior predictive performance in comparison with other models. Also, the NPKDE approach better describes the accuracy of the probability density distribution.
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