Improved Hybrid Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart using Auxiliary Information

Sadia Tariq1, Muhammad Noor-ul-Amin2, Muhammad Hanif1 and Chi-Hyuck Jun3

1Department of Statistics, National College of Business Administration & Economics, Pakistan

2Department of Statistics, COMSATS University Islamabad-Lahore Campus, Pakistan

3Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, POSTECH, Pohang 790-784, Republic of Korea

E-mail: nooramin.stats@gmail.com

Corresponding Author

Abstract

Statistical process control is an important tool for maintaining the quality of a production process. Several control charts are available to monitor changes in process parameters. In this study, a control chart for the process mean is proposed. For this purpose, an auxiliary variable is used in the form of a regression estimator under the configuration of the hybrid exponentially weighted moving average (HEWMA) control chart. The proposed chart is evaluated by conducting a simulation study. The results showed that the proposed chart is sensitive with respect to the HEWMA chart. A real-life application is also presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed control chart.

Keywords: ARL, auxiliary variable, process control

Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P30

1 Introduction

An important statistical tool for monitoring processes is the control chart. In the industry, product quality can be improved by removing the special cause of variation. A process is said to be statistically controlled if the cause of the change is due to natural or common causes. Montgomery & Runger (2007) showed that statistical process control (SPC) addresses specific causes of variability. Control charts are divided into two categories. One is a memory-less control chart like Shewhart control charts, and the other includes EWMA chart and CUSUM chart.

Control chart performance is evaluated based on average run length (ARL). The main goal when creating a new control chart is to detect changes as soon as possible. (Haq, 2013) proposed a new chart called the hybrid exponentially weighted moving average (HEWMA) chart. The author used two EWMA statistics to improve the sensitivity of the control chart. Auxiliary information can play an important role in improving the sensitivity of control charts. (Abbas, Riaz, & Does, 2014), Riaz, (2008) andNoor-ul-Amin, Khan, & Sanaullah (2019) used auxiliary information in control charts.

Several authors have proposed ratio and regression estimators that incorporate auxiliary information ((see Yasmeen, Noor-ul-Amin, & Hanif (2019) and Noor-ul-Amin and Hanif (2012). The main purpose of this study is to improve the control chart by using HEWMA statistic and auxiliary variable. To do this, we propose a control chart called MxHEWMA control chart using a regression estimator.

2 Proposed MXHEWMA Control Chart

We suppose that Wi is a supporting variable correlated with the variable of interest say Xi and that the correlation between Xi and Wi is denoted by ρXW. This is assumed that (X,W)N2(μx,μw,σx2,σw2,ρXW) where N2 denotes the bivariate normal distribution. The auxiliary variable is incorporated in the form of regression estimator, i.e.

Mx=X¯+bXW(μw-W¯), (1)

where, bxw=ρxw(σxσw). For statistic Mx the mean and variance are given by

E(Mx)=μx,V(Mx)=σM2=σx2n(1-ρXW2). (2)

By using (1), the plotting statistic for the proposed control chart is defined as

MxHEt=λ1Et+(1-λ1)HEt-1, (3)

here,

HE0=E0=μx,andEt=λ2Mx+(1-λ2)Et-1 (4)

where two smoothing constants are λ1 and λ2 such that 0<λ1,λ21. The respective expected value, variance, and control limits of MxHEWMA control chart are given by

E(MxHEt)=μx,
V(MxHEt) = (λ2λ1)2(λ2-λ1)2[(1-λ1)2(1-(1-λ1)2t)1-(1-λ1)2+(1-λ2)2(1-(1-λ2)2t)(1-(1-λ2)2)-2(1-λ1)(1-λ2){1-1-(1-λ2)t(1-λ1)t}1-(1-λ1)(1-λ2)]σM2(5)

and

LCLt = μx-
L(λ2λ1)2(λ2-λ1)2[(1-λ1)2(1-(1-λ1)2t)1-(1-λ1)2+(1-λ2)2(1-(1-λ2)2t)1-(1-λ2)2-2(1-λ1)(1-λ2){1-1-(1-λ2)t(1-λ1)t}1-(1-λ1)(1-λ2)]σM (6)
CLt = μx
UCLt = μx+
L(λ2λ1)2(λ2-λ1)2[(1-λ1)2(1-(1-λ1)2t)1-(1-λ1)2+(1-λ2)2(1-(1-λ2)2t)1-(1-λ2)2-2(1-λ1)(1-λ2){1-1-(1-λ2)t(1-λ1)t}1-(1-λ1)(1-λ2)]σM (7)

The L is a control constant, which is determined that ARL0 of the MxHEWMA control chart will reach the pre-described level. Here, ARL0 is fixed at 500. The HEWMA statistic using the auxiliary information is called MxHEWMA. We define δ as the shift in the process mean.

The ARLs are calculated through the simulations by using the following steps:

i. A random sample of size one is selected from a bivariate normal distribution having the specified parameters, that is, (X,W)N2(0,0,1,1,ρxw) and Mx is computed.

ii. Setting up the upper and lower limits for the different combinations of L and λ2, where λ1 is fixed as 0.1 (for detail see Shabbir & Awan (2016)).

iii. For comparison purposes with other control charts we fixed ARL0=500, the control coefficient L has been determined to set in-control ARL by simulations, the decision of L relies upon n and ρXW.

iv. We assume the value of the population correlation coefficient ρXW to be known in advance.

v. In Tables A1A5, λ1=0.1 is fixed.

vi. Follow the steps (1)–(2), the number of subgroups before the first point plotted beyond the limits is recorded as run length.

vii. The process is repeated 100,000 times to obtain the ARL and the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL).

The basic discoveries about MxHEWMA control chart from Tables A1A5 are discussed below:

I Auxiliary information improves the sensitivity of the proposed control chart. As it can be seen from Tables A1A5, a decrease in ARL is observed with an increase in the value of the correlation coefficient. We observed that the efficiency of the proposed chart is almost equal to the HEWMA chart for small value of ρXW=0.05.

II In all the tables, the proposed control chart ARL is fair (unbiased). In other words, ARL0 has never decreased from ARL1 for any value of δ.

III It is observed in Tables 12 and in Figures A1A3 (listed in the Appendix) that the proposed control chart has gained the efficiency as compared to the HEWMA chart and MxEt (exponentially weighted moving average using auxiliary variable) even for a small value of correlation coefficient.

3 Comparison

This section presents the comparisons between the proposed MxHEWMA chart and the HEWMA control chart and the MxEt control chart. The comparative results of the MxHEWMA chart with the HEWMA are presented in Table 1 in the form of ARLs. Table 1 showed that the proposed chart is efficient than HEWMA chart to detect changes in process mean. From the results of the ARLs, it is clear that the proposed chart is more efficient for weak, moderate, and high correlation values. The same results are observed in Table 2 in comparison with MxEt control chart.

Table 1 Comparison of ARL of MXHEWMA chart with Haq (2013) when λ1=0.10 and ρxw=0.25,0.5

λ2

0.1 0.25 0.5

δ ρxw ρxw ρxw

0.25 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.25 0.5

Haq Proposed Haq Proposed Haq proposed
0 500.2 493.2 496.0 504.6 508.3 509.3 502.4 508.5 508.5
0.1 286.7 305.6 275.3 304.4 268.9 244.8 310.4 314.9 218.3
0.25 86.2 95.8 78.4 96.2 75.7 61.2 100.8 94.7 78.2
0.5 28.0 26.2 21.5 28.8 22.2 18.5 28.5 26.4 21.3
0.75 16.1 12.6 10.4 14.9 11.3 9.4 14.2 12.6 10.2
1 11.2 7.6 6.3 10.04 6.9 5.8 9.0 7.6 6.2
1.25 8.7 5.2 4.3 7.4 4.7 4.0 6.5 5.2 4.3
1.5 7.1 3.9 3.2 6.0 3.5 2.8 5.0 3.8 3.2
1.75 6.1 3.0 2.5 5.04 2.7 2.2 4.1 3.0 2.5
2 5.3 2.4 2.1 4.3 2.1 1.8 3.5 2.4 2.1

Table 2 Comparison of ARL of MXHEWMA chart with Riaz (2008)

λ2

0.1 0.25 0.5

δ ρxw ρxw ρxw

0.25 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.25 0.5

Riaz Proposed Riaz Proposed Riaz proposed
0 499.1 493.2 496.0 499.8 508.3 509.3 500.7 508.5 508.5
0.1 290.3 305.6 275.3 364.0 268.9 244.8 423.5 314.9 218.3
0.25 80.6 95.8 78.4 135.7 75.7 61.2 216.0 94.7 78.2
0.5 22.0 26.2 21.5 34.5 22.2 18.5 65.3 26.4 21.3
0.75 10.5 12.6 10.4 14.1 11.3 9.4 24.7 12.6 10.2
1 6.4 7.6 6.3 7.80 6.9 5.8 11.9 7.6 6.2
1.25 4.4 5.2 4.3 5.1 4.7 4.0 6.8 5.2 4.3
1.5 3.3 3.9 3.2 3.7 3.5 2.8 4.5 3.8 3.2
1.75 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.5 3.0 2.5
2 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.1

4 Real-life Application

An example of the proposed control chart is presented. The proposed control chart is functional for the industry if they collect quantifiable data. The actual data from Shabbir and Awan (2016) are taken here. The qualitative characteristics are the net weight of the cooking oil, including the tin, indicated by Xt. The weight of the empty tin is considered an auxiliary variable (Wt). The variables, Xt. and Wt are normally distributed so that μx=4.9,μw=22.6,σx2=0.0003, and σw2=0.005. The Xt. and Wt data and the corresponding MxHEWMA statistics of each subgroup are shown in Table 3 using λ1=0.1 and, λ2=0.25. The control limits of HEWMA and MxHEWMA are presented in Table 3 of the data set indicated. The graphical representation is shown in Figures 12.

Table 3 and Figure 1 described that HEWMA is not able to efficiently detect changes in the process average as it appears in the MxHEWMA control chart.

Table 3 Results from cooking oil data for δ=0.1,λ1=0.1,λ2=0.25 and ARL0=500.

S.N Xt Wt Mx Mx Et MxHEt Lcl-MxHEt Ucl-MxHEt Ucl-HEt Lcl-HEt HEt
1 4.89 22.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.058 0.058 0.067 -0.067 0
2 4.889 22.5 0.610 0.305 0.031 -0.112 0.112 0.129 -0.129 -0.002
3 4.9 22.6 0.578 0.442 0.072 -0.163 0.163 0.189 -0.188 0.0248
4 4.899 22.6 0.520 0.481 0.113 -0.209 0.209 0.242 -0.242 0.062
5 4.888 22.6 -0.116 0.183 0.120 -0.250 0.250 0.289 -0.289 0.069
6 4.871 22.5 -0.430 -0.124 0.095 -0.285 0.285 0.330 -0.329 0.015
7 4.916 22.6 1.503 0.690 0.155 -0.314 0.314 0.364 -0.363 0.064
8 4.901 22.6 0.636 0.663 0.205 -0.339 0.339 0.393 -0.392 0.115
9 4.877 22.5 -0.084 0.290 0.214 -0.360 0.360 0.417 -0.416 0.095
10 4.904 22.7 0.141 0.215 0.214 -0.377 0.377 0.437 -0.436 0.121
11 4.899 22.5 1.188 0.702 0.263 -0.391 0.391 0.453 -0.453 0.153
12 4.894 22.5 0.899 0.800 0.317 -0.403 0.403 0.467 -0.467 0.171
13 4.888 22.5 0.552 0.676 0.353 -0.413 0.413 0.478 -0.478 0.165
14 4.886 22.6 -0.231 0.223 0.340 -0.421 0.421 0.488 -0.487 0.143
15 4.917 22.6 1.561 0.892 0.395 -0.427 0.427 0.495 -0.495 0.203
16 4.905 22.7 0.199 0.545 0.410 -0.433 0.433 0.501 -0.501 0.264
17 4.91 22.6 1.156 0.851 0.454 -0.437 0.437 0.506 -0.506 0.336
18 4.9 22.6 0.578 0.714 0.480 -0.441 0.441 0.511 -0.510 0.380
19 4.926 22.6 2.081 1.398 0.572 -0.444 0.444 0.514 -0.513 0.525
20 4.912 22.7 0.604 1.001 0.615 -0.446 0.446 0.517 -0.516 0.572

bold indicates out-of-control signal

images

Figure 1 HEWMA control chart with ARL0=500

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Figure 2 MXHEWMA control chart with ARL0=500

5 Conclusion

In this study, MxHEWMA control chart is presented using auxiliary information in the form of a regression estimator to monitor the process mean. The proposed MxHEWMA control chart is becoming more sensitive when the correlation between the study variable and the auxiliary variable increases. It is observed from the results that the out-of-control ARLs and SDRLs are smaller for the proposed control chart as compared to the considered charts. The proposed control is superior in identifying minor/moderate variations in the process average. Therefore, professionals are advised to use the MxHEWMA control chart. The study can be extended using different sampling methods, such as ranked set sampling. Furthermore, the effect of measurement error can also be studied.

Appendix

The ARLs and SDRLs in Tables A1A5 are calculated for three values of λ2, i.e. 0.25,0.5,0.75 and taking λ1=0.1. The values of control constant with different values of λ2 are given by

λ2 0.25 0.5 0.75
L 2.548 2.675 2.76

Table A1 ARLS for the proposed chart with ρXW=0.05 AND ARL0=500

δ ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs
0 511.2 525.4 517.7 521.2 506.8 513.7
0.1 298.9 303.1 316.7 318.6 323.3 321.0
0.25 92.6 85.5 99.5 94.1 99.6 92.3
0.5 26.4 21.0 27.9 22.4 28.2 22.8
0.75 12.6 8.8 13.2 9.1 13.3 9.4
1 7.6 4.9 7.9 5.0 8.1 5.1
1.25 5.3 3.3 5.4 3.3 5.5 3.3
1.5 3.8 2.3 4.0 2.3 4.08 2.3
1.75 3.0 1.7 3.1 1.7 3.2 1.7
2 2.4 1.4 2.5 1.4 2.6 1.366

Table A2 ARLS for the proposed chart with ρXW=0.25 AND ARL0=500

δ ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs
0 508.3 532.0 508.5 507.4 505.4 508.6
0.1 268.9 274.6 314.9 311.0 320.5 307.9
0.25 75.7 68.9 94.7 89.7 98.4 92.2
0.5 22.2 16.8 26.4 20.6 26.8 21.3
0.75 11.3 8.0 12.6 8.6 12.7 8.9
1 6.9 4.7 7.6 4.8 7.67 4.8
1.25 4.7 3.1 5.2 3.1 5.26 3.1
1.5 3.5 2.2 3.8 2.2 3.9 2.2
1.75 2.7 1.7 3.0 1.6 3.0 1.6
2 2.1 1.3 2.4 1.3 2.5 1.3

Table A3 ARLS for the proposed chart with ρXW=0.5 AND ARL0=500

δ ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs
0 509.3 524.4 508.5 517.4 502.7 501.5
0.1 244.8 251.1 258.3 278.3 280.5 279.4
0.25 61.2 54.9 78.2 73.2 79.2 73.3
0.5 18.5 13.8 21.3 16.3 21.4 16.2
0.75 9.4 6.5 10.2 6.7 10.4 6.9
1 5.8 3.9 6.2 3.8 6.3 3.9
1.25 4.0 2.6 4.3 2.5 4.4 2.5
1.5 2.8 1.8 3.2 1.8 3.27 1.8
1.75 2.2 1.3 2.5 1.3 2.6 1.3
2 1.8 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0

Table A4 ARLS for the proposed chart with ρXW=0.75 AND ARL0=500

δ ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs
0 509.6 519.0 506.3 514.1 499.2 501.1
0.1 174.5 172.6 209.3 201.9 213.0 211.9
0.25 38.5 31.9 47.2 41.7 48.2 42.0
0.5 11.7 8.2 13.0 9.0 13.3 9.2
0.75 5.9 4.0 6.4 4.0 6.5 4.0
1 3.6 2.4 3.9 2.2 4.0 2.3
1.25 2.5 1.5 2.8 1.5 2.84 1.5
1.5 1.8 1.0 2.1 1.1 2.16 1.0
1.75 1.5 0.7 1.7 0.8 1.7 0.8
2 1.3 0.5 1.4 0.6 1.4 0.6

Table A5 ARLS for the proposed chart with ρXW=0.95 AND ARL0=500

δ ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs ARLs SDRLs
0 495.0 501.8 506.2 518.0 498.6 513.7
0.1 51.9 45.8 65.6 5.3 66.1 60.6
0.25 10.7 7.3 11.7 7.9 11.9 8.1
0.5 3.3 2.1 3.6 2.0 3.67 2.0
0.75 1.7 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.93 0.9
1 1.2 0.4 1.34 0.5 1.38 0.5
1.25 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.3
1.5 1.0 0.08 1.0 0.13 1.0 0.1
1.75 1.0 0.02 1.0 0.03 1.0 0.04
2 1.0 0 1.0 0.01 1.0 0.01

images

Figure A1 ARLs for various values of ρXW at λ2=0.25

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Figure A2 ARLs for various values of ρXW at λ2=0.5

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Figure A3 ARLs for various values of ρXW at λ2=0.75

References

Abbas, N., Riaz, M., and Does, R. J. M. M. (2014). An EWMA-type control chart for monitoring the process mean using auxiliary information, Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 43(16), pp. 3485–3498.

Haq, A. (2013). A new hybrid exponentially weighted moving average control chart for monitoring process mean, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 29(7), pp. 1015–1025.

Montgomery, D. C., and Runger, G. C. (2007). Applied Statistics And Probability for Engineers, (With CD), John Wiley & Sons.

Noor-ul-Amin, M., and Hanif, M. (2012). Some exponential estimators in survey sampling, Pakistan Journal of Statistics, 28(3), pp. 367–374.

Noor-ul-Amin, M., Khan, S., and Sanaullah, A. (2019). HEWMA control chart using auxiliary information,Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions A: Science, 43(3), pp. 891–903.

Riaz, M. (2008). Monitoring process mean level using auxiliary information,Statistica Neerlandica, 62(4), pp. 458–481.

Shabbir, J., and Awan, W. H. (2016). An efficient Shewhart-type control chart to monitor moderate size shifts in the process mean in phase II, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 32(5), pp. 1597–1619.

Yasmeen, U., Noor-ul-Amin, M., and Hanif, M. (2019). Exponential estimators of finite population variance using transformed auxiliary variables, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, India Section A: Physical Sciences, 89(1), pp. 185–191.

Biographies

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Sadia Tariq earned her Ph.D. student at the National College of Business Administration & Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan. She is currently working as an Assistant professor of Statistics at Minhaj University, Lahore. His research interests include control charting.

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Muhammad Noor-ul-Amin received his Ph.D. degree from NCBA&E, Lahore, Pakistan. He has working experience in various universities for teaching and research that includes the Virtual University of Pakistan, University of Sargodha, Pakistan, and the University of Burgundy, France. He is currently working as an Assistant professor at COMSATS University Islamabad-Lahore Campus. His research interests include sampling techniques and control charting techniques. He is an HEC approved supervisor.

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Muhammad Hanif completed his Master’s degree from New South Wales University, Australia in Multistage Cluster Sampling. He completed his Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. He has more than 40 years of research experience. He is an author of more than 200 research papers and 10 books. He has served as a Professor in various parts of the world i.e. Australia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. He is presently a Professor of Statistics and Vice-Rector (Research) at NCBA&E, Lahore, Pakistan.

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Chi-Hyuck Jun was born in Seoul, Korea in 1954. He received a BS (1977) in mineral and petroleum engineering from Seoul National University, an MS(1979) in industrial engineering from KAIST, and a PhD (1986) in operations research from the University of California, Berkeley. Since 1987, he has been with the department of industrial and management engineering, POSTECH; and he is now a professor and the department head. He is interested in reliability and quality analysis and data mining techniques. He is a member of IEEE, INFORMS, and ASQ.

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Proposed MXHEWMA Control Chart

3 Comparison

4 Real-life Application

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5 Conclusion

Appendix

References

Biographies