Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares-based Generalized Linear Model for Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Property Investment

Authors

  • Hamza Abubakar 1) School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. 06010 Sintok, Kedah Malaysia 3) Department of Mathematics, Isa Kaita College of Education, Dutsin-ma, Katsina, Nigeria
  • Masnita Misiran 1) School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. 06010 Sintok, Kedah Malaysia 2) Centre for Testing, Measurement & Appraisal, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010, Sintok, Kedah, Malaysia
  • Abubakar Balarabe Karaye Department of Banking and Finance, Tishk International University, Erbil, Iraq
  • Nura Gambo School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13052/jrss0974-8024.17110

Keywords:

Net present value, generalized linear models, logistic regression, macroeconomic indicators, iteratively reweighted least square, investment property, real estate

Abstract

This study explores the impact of macroeconomic indicators on Net Present Value (NPV) in the Malaysian property sector from 2010 to 2022. Using data from Sharia-compliant property firms, Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and logistic regression analyze Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rate (IR), and exchange rate (ER) effects on NPV. Significant positive associations are found for CPI (coefficient = 0.028, p = 0.001) and GDP (coefficient = 0.004, p = 0.045), indicating higher inflation and economic growth enhance NPV. Conversely, ER (coefficient = −0.015, p = 0.003) and IR (coefficient = −0.042, p < 0.001) negatively impact NPV, reflecting currency volatility and borrowing costs. GLM-IRLS models show robust predictive power (Deviance = 235.67, R-squared = 0.30), informing strategic decision-making for property investments amid economic fluctuations.

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Author Biographies

Hamza Abubakar, 1) School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. 06010 Sintok, Kedah Malaysia 3) Department of Mathematics, Isa Kaita College of Education, Dutsin-ma, Katsina, Nigeria

Hamza Abubakar received his B.Sc. in Mathematics and M.Sc. in Financial Mathematics from the University of Abuja, Nigeria. He holds a Ph.D. in Financial Mathematics from the University of Science Malaysia. Abubakar joined the service of Isa Kaita College of Education, Dutsin-ma, Katsina, Nigeria, as an assistant lecturer and rose to Principal Lecturer through successive promotions, serving in various capacities, including Head of the Mathematics Department. He is currently a Postdoctoral Scheme A (Lecturer) at the School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. Abubakar has published numerous papers in high-impact journals and actively contributes to professional bodies across the globe in the field of applied mathematics. He is a member of the Nigerian Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of Nigeria, the Science Teachers Association of Nigeria, and the International Association of Engineers (OR and AI). His research interests include Financial Mathematics, neural network modeling, and Metaheuristics algorithms and Satisfiability.

Masnita Misiran, 1) School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. 06010 Sintok, Kedah Malaysia 2) Centre for Testing, Measurement & Appraisal, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010, Sintok, Kedah, Malaysia

Masnita Misiran is the Director of the Center of Testing, Measurement & Appraisal (CeTMA) and an Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), Kedah. She has also served as Deputy Director of CeTMA and Deputy Dean of the School of Quantitative Sciences. Dr. Misiran has led key sustainability initiatives at UUM, including the development of the UUM Living Campus Blueprint and the annual UUM Sustainability Report, which guide the university’s sustainability efforts.

With a Bachelor’s and Master’s in Mathematics from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and a PhD in Financial Mathematics from Curtin University, Australia, Dr. Misiran has over 20 years of research experience. Her work spans financial mathematics, risk management, business analytics, and student development. She focuses on promoting financial, digital, and STEM literacy, earning the Minister of Education Malaysia Special Award in Curriculum Design and Innovative Delivery (AKRI 2019) for her contributions. She coordinates the MySTEM Ambassador program under the Ministry of Higher Education and serves as the UUM Focal Point for the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network Malaysia Chapter.

Dr. Misiran holds 13 intellectual properties related to STEM education, financial literacy, and sustainable practices. She has authored over 120 research articles, conference proceedings, and scholarly books, emphasizing community empowerment through service learning and education.

Abubakar Balarabe Karaye, Department of Banking and Finance, Tishk International University, Erbil, Iraq

Abubakar Balarabe Karaye is a full-time faculty member at Tishk International University, Erbil, Iraq, where he currently serves as the Acting Head of the Finance and Banking Department. He holds a PhD in Business Administration with a specialization in Finance and Accounting from Hacettepe University, Turkey, Academic MBA in Finance from Cankaya University, Turkey, as well as BSc. in Accounting from Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. Dr. Karaye is a Doctoral Fellow of Chartered Financial Managers (DFCFM), certified by the Chartered Institute of Financial Managers, Wyoming, United States of America. He is also a Certified Management Specialist (CMS) from the London Graduate School, United Kingdom, and a Fellow of Institute of Management Consultants, Nigeria (FIMC). With more than 11 years’ experience in academia and professional certifications, Dr. Karaye’s research interests focus on areas such as; Corporate Finance, Corporate Governance, International Finance, Financial Mathematics, and Banking.

Nura Gambo, School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia

Nura Gambo is a Nigerian academic with extensive experience in the fields of Nuclear Physics, Medical Physics, Radiation Sciences, and Statistical Physics. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Education (BSc Ed.) in Physics and a Master of Science (MSc.) in Physics from Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto (UDUS), Nigeria. He is currently a PhD Scholar at Universiti Sains Malaysia, specializing in Nuclear Physics, with a focus on Medical Physics, Radiation Sciences, and Statistical Physics. In addition to his studies, Gambo is a full-time senior lecturer in the Department of Physics at Isa Kaita College of Education, Dutsin-Ma, Katsina State, where he contributes to the education and training of future physicists. His research and teaching are centered on advancing knowledge in radiological safety, nuclear technology, and statistical physics. Gambo is also a member of the Nigeria Institute of Physics, reflecting his active engagement with the broader scientific community in the country.

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Published

2024-10-05

How to Cite

Abubakar, H., Misiran, M., Karaye, A. B., & Gambo, N. (2024). Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares-based Generalized Linear Model for Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Property Investment. Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies, 17(01), 241–266. https://doi.org/10.13052/jrss0974-8024.17110

Issue

2024: Vol 17 Iss 1

Section

Articles