Prediction Model for the Electrical Industry in Spain— The Trend Toward Renewable Energy
Abstract
During 2008-2013, the global economic crisis and financial uncer-
tainty brought important economic adjustments in developed countries
and especially in the European Union (EU). Currently, however, key
national and international agencies predict the consolidation and accel-
eration of growth of the European economy during 2014-2015, driven by
recovery of trust and improved financial conditions.
According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
and the reports of Spanish energy sector, final demand for electricity
dropped 3.4% in 2013 over the previous year, which was evidence of
lower economic activity and structural differences in consumption.
The final electricity demand in 2013 was 232,008 GWh, down 3.4%
from the previous year. However, the forecast for 2014 and 2015 foresees
an increase of 1.5%, which will influence the changing trend model of
the electricity industry in Spain.
This model allows predicting the potential political and economic
implications, which are dependant on the discussed variables. The
most influential parameters that have been considered to establish the
prediction model are: absorption and emission of carbon dioxide, forest
cover, demand and primary energy intensity, energy carriers (coal, fuel,
gas, hydro, nuclear and renewables), gross domestic product and rates,
and energy vectors for all the variables in the period. The results clearly
show that sustainability will be a fact when making energy efficiency
programs, both in the electrical industry as in other energy sectors.
Additionally, CO2 emissions will be reduced if proper action plans and
efficiency policies are developed.
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