Will the New Economy Use More or Less Energy?

Abstract

The conventional wisdom used to be that the information-based
economy would be far more energy efficient than the old economy. The
arguments in support of this were that more people would telecommute,
cutting down on driving: fewer people would travel, relying on telecon-
ferencing and so on. As the economy shifts towards services and knowl-
edge workers, there would be less manufacturing—which tends to be
energy-intensive. And that wonderful thing called the Internet would
connect people around the globe around the clock, making organiza-
tions more productive, and processes more efficient at little cost. People
would order more goods from the likes of Amazon.com and there
would be fewer trips to the stores, and fewer warehouses.
While the jury is still out on this rosy picture, our own view is that
this vision will be as true as the paperless office. While it is possible in
theory, we know of no paperless offices. If anything, people print—and
waste—more paper than before. The Internet, Intranet, e-mail, and in-
stant wireless, and ubiquitous telecommunications have not reduced our
reliance on paper—they have increased it.
So it seems with energy consumption in the new economy. What
seems to be happening is that we have created more demand for new
electricity-guzzling devices of the new economy without significantly
reducing energy usage in the old economy. True, more goods are now
ordered via the Internet, avoiding a trip to the mall. But that means that
somebody else has to drive to our house to drop off the goods.