Is the Tie between Electricity Demand and Economic Growth BROKEN?
Abstract
As shown in the graph below, growth in US demand for electricity
has, for years, followed growth in US real Gross Domestic Product very
closely, at least until 1996 or 1997. However, data from the Energy Infor-
mation Administration (EIA) indicate that electricity demand began lag-
ging GDP growth in 1996 or 1997 and has continued to deviate since
then. This raises some critical questions for the electric industry. Specifi-
cally:
• Is the US economy now on a path of significantly lower electricity
intensity?
• Is something going on in the GDP or electric use data for recent
years that is giving an incorrect picture of the relationship between
the two key factors?