Application of Gray Expansion Model in Energy Economic Analysis and Load Forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4313Keywords:
Energy consumption, gray theory, load capacity, DEA-Malmqusit model, LEAPS modelAbstract
Objective and effective prediction of energy consumption can not only optimize the energy consumption structure, but also provide important information for the government to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction measures. With the development of new energy sources and changes in the global energy consumption structure, historical energy data that are too old may no longer be reliable for forecasting, which leads to a decrease in the amount of information on energy, and the gray theory, which is applicable to “poor information”, has gained attention. Firstly, the optimization of energy economic objectives and transformation path methods at this stage is clarified; then, the DEA-Malmqusit model is used to improve the shortcomings of the traditional model that can only compare different cross-sections at the same time node, and to evaluate and analyze the full-factor multi-indicators of energy enterprises in terms of technological empowerment, environmental dynamics, and economic output efficiency; finally, the LEAPS-based energy system consumption and load capacity prediction model. The results show that the traditional algorithm is not accurate enough and has some deviation when the energy raw data fluctuates a lot. The algorithm proposed in this paper still gives a better prediction, predicting a city’s carbon emission to be 65,240,100 tons in 2024, with a 3.6% increase in energy output year by year.
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