Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security

Authors

  • Kiran Gautam 1) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal 2) Water and Energy Commission Secretariat, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
  • Amrit Man Nakarmi Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal
  • Shree Raj Shakya 1) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal, 2)Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4231

Keywords:

Energy supply, energy security indicator, hydropower, scenario development, MAED, LEAP

Abstract

Nepal is 100% dependent on imported petroleum products as it has no as yet viable proven reserve. The import of petroleum is increasing at an alarming rate (15.2% annually) which is creating not only a burden on the national economy but also raising the issue of energy supply security and environmental degradation. In this study, eleven distinct significant indicators have been used to evaluate the energy security status of the country. Since there is no such detailed quantification of indicators carried out in previous research, this study can be a significant input to policymakers and planners. It also explores the policy intervention measures to improve energy security status in the context of a developing country that is increasingly dependent on imported commercial fuels. Five different scenarios have been developed considering 2017 as a base year and 2040 as an end year with different economic growth rates 4.5%, 7.2% and 9.2% as main driving parameter. Two additional policy intervention scenarios (Policy-I and Policy-II), prioritizing electrification to enhance energy security, have been analyzed. The energy demands have been projected using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), while the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool has been used to analyze the supply, the energy supply requirement, fuel import dependence, cost, as well as the size of power plant requirement under different scenarios. The results manifest that there would be a reduction in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) requirement by 1.14% and 8.7% under policy-I and Policy-II scenarios respectively in the year 2040, compared to the reference scenario (7.2%) resulting in improved energy security, economic vulnerability, and GHG mitigation. It indicates that the use of indigenous renewable energy resources mainly hydro is indispensable for ensuring the energy security of Nepal.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Kiran Gautam, 1) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal 2) Water and Energy Commission Secretariat, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal

Kiran Gautam is a Senior Divisional Engineer at the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), Government of Nepal. Her technical areas of expertise are Energy Planning & Modelling, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. She has completed her Masters in Renewable Energy Engineering from Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University with Distinction. Currently, she is a PhD Scholar at Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Nepal conducting research in the field of energy demand and supply, energy security and environmental analysis of Nepal. She is willing to invest her time and expertise to pursue her carrier in the area of energy planning and policy making.

Amrit Man Nakarmi, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal

Amrit Man Nakarmi is the Professor and the Coordinator of Energy Systems Planning and Analysis Unit, Center for Energy Studies, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal. He has more than 30 years of experience in energy planning and policy analysis in regards with sustainability, energy security, economy and climate impacts, and has experience of working at top executive levels in public and private sectors. Some of his researches are focused on clean cooking in Nepal and its effect on economics. He holds PhD in Public Policy (energy sector) from the School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, India, Master of Engineering Management from the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada, and MSc. (honors) in Mechanical Engineering from the Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway and University, Ukraine, FSU.

Shree Raj Shakya, 1) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal, 2)Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

Shree Raj Shakya is an Associate Professor of the Institute of Engineering (IOE), Tribhuvan University in Nepal. During his affiliation with IOE since 2003, he served as the Director of Center for Energy Studies and Coordinator of MSc in Energy Systems Planning and Management. His research has mainly focused on the renewable energy, energy efficiency, integrated energy-emission-economy systems modelling, environmental emission, low carbon development and co-benefits.

Dr. Shakya holds a Doctor of Engineering in Energy from the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand with specialization in Low Carbon Development Strategy. He authored more than 80 peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters, reports and proceedings. He was a fellow in 2021 and Affiliate Scholar in 2022 at Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS), formerly Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), Potsdam, Germany.

References

S. H. Kulkarni and T. R. Anil, “Status of Rural Electrification in India, Energy Scenario and People’s Perception of Renewable Energy Technologies,” Strateic. Planning in Energy and the Environment., vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 41–71, 2015.

H. Zhao, “The economics and politics of China’s energy security Transition,” 2019, pp. 99–120.

W. W. Hogan, “Energy Modeling for Policy Studies,” Oper. Res., vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 89–95, 2002.

A. Månsson, B. Johansson, and L. J. Nilsson, “Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies,” Energy, vol. 73, no. August, pp. 1–14, 2014.

IEA, “Energy security,” 2019.

WEC, “World Energy Trilema Index,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.worldenergy.org/transition-toolkit/world-energy-trilemma-index. [Accessed: 19-Sep-2020].

NPC, “15th Plan,” Kathmandu, 2020.

MoF, “Economic Survey,” Kathmandu, 2020.

Water and Energy Secretariat, “Energy Data Sheet,” June 2014, 2014.

ADB, “Nepal Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy,” Kathmandu, 2017.

WECS Nepal, “Energy consumption and supply situation of federal system of Nepal (Province 1 and Province 2),” Kathmandu, Nepal.

NEA, “A Year in Review,” Kathmandu, Nepal, 2020.

D. Poudel, “Asta-Ja and Energy security in Nepal,” Strategic Planning in Energy and the Environment., vol. 40, no. 2, 2021.

S. K. Chopra, Energy Policy for India. New Delhi: Mohan Primlani for Oxford & IBH Publishing Co. Pvt. Ltd., 2004.

J. Martchamadol and S. Kumar, “An aggregated energy security performance indicator,” Appl. Energy, vol. 103, pp. 653–670, 2013.

E. Bompard, A. Carpignano, M. Erriquez, D. Grosso, M. Pession, and F. Profumo, “National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective,” Energy, vol. 130, pp. 144–154, 2017.

M. Radovanović, S. Filipović, and D. Pavlović, “Energy security measurement – A sustainable approach,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 68, pp. 1020–1032, 2017.

IAEA, “Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development?: Guidelines and Methodologies,” Vienna, Austria, 2005.

O. Wyman, “World Energy Trilemma Index,” 2018.

WEF, “The Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2014,” 2014.

E. Kisel, A. Hamburg, M. Härm, A. Leppiman, and M. Ots, “Concept for Energy Security Matrix,” Energy Policy, vol. 95, pp. 1–9, 2016.

B. Acharya and S. Adhikari, “Household energy consumption and adaptation behavior during crisis: Evidence from Indian economic blockade on Nepal,” Energy Policy, vol. 148, no. PB, p. 111998, 2021.

C. Heaps, “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System User Guide 2008,” no. February, 2010.

MoF, “Economic Survey 2017–18,” 2018.

WECS Nepal, “Energy Synopsis Report,” Report, 2010.

I. International Atomic Energy Agency, “MAED Manual,” 2005.

B. Kichonge, G. R. John, I. S. N. Mkilaha, and S. Hameer, “Modelling of Future Energy Demand for Tanzania,” J. Energy Technol. Policy, vol. 4, no. 7, pp. 16–32, 2014.

A. M. Nakarmi, T. Mishra, and R. Banerjee, “Integrated MAED–MARKAL-based analysis of future energy scenarios of Nepal,” Int. J. Sustain. Energy, vol. 35, no. 10, pp. 968–981, 2014.

K. Gautam, A. M. Nakarmi, and S. R. Shakya, “Future Energy Demand Scenarios of Nepal,” J. Eng. Appl. Sci., vol. 15, no. 9, pp. 2050–2057, 2020.

N. E. A. NEA, “Fiscal year 2017/18,” pp. 1–196, 2017.

A. K. Awopone, A. F. Zobaa, and W. Banuenumah, “Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana,” Energy Policy, vol. 104, no. January, pp. 13–22, 2017.

M. Howells et al., “OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System An introduction to its ethos, structure and development,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 10, pp. 5850–5870, 2011.

H. Yophy, B. Yunchang, and P. Chieh-yu, “The long-term forecast of Taiwan ’ s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application,” vol. 39, pp. 6790–6803, 2011.

B. Kruyt, D. P. Van Vuuren, H. J. M. De Vries, and H. Groenenberg, “Indicators for energy security,” vol. 37, pp. 2166–2181, 2009.

M. Grubb, L. Butler, and P. Twomey, “Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives,” vol. 34, pp. 4050–4062, 2006.

J. Anwar, “Analysis of energy security, environmental emission and fuel import costs under energy import reduction targets: A case of Pakistan,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 65, pp. 1065–1078, 2016.

J. P. Dorian, H. T. Franssen, and D. R. Simbeck, “Global challenges in energy,” Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 15, pp. 1984–1991, 2006.

S. Dulal and S. R. Shakya, “Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province No. 1 of Federal Republic Nepal,” J. Adv. Coll. Eng. Manag., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 163–173, 2018.

S. R. Shakya, S. Kumar, and R. M. Shrestha, “Co-benefits of a carbon tax in Nepal,” pp. 77–101, 2011.

B. W. Ang, W. L. Choong, and T. S. Ng, “Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 42, pp. 1077–1093, 2015.

Downloads

Published

2023-05-17

How to Cite

Gautam, K. ., Nakarmi, A. M., & Shakya, S. R. . (2023). Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security. Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment, 42(03), 405–430. https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4231

Issue

2023: Vol 42 Iss 3

Section

Articles