A New Grey Prediction Model and Its Application in Renewable Energy Consumption
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4347Keywords:
Renewable energy, solar power, new grey prediction model, sustainability analysis, energy policyAbstract
Renewable energy is an energy resource that can be used continuously. At present, international oil prices continue to rise, the problem of global climate change is becoming increasingly prominent, and renewable energy and clean energy have ushered in a new round of development opportunities. Based on the new gray prediction model, this paper forecasts the consumption of renewable energy and further analyzes the sustainable development of renewable energy. In this paper, the combinatorial optimization method of cumulative order, background value coefficient, and initial conditions, parameter optimization combination, parameter combinatorial optimization process of the gray prediction model, and parameter optimization mechanism based on the PSO algorithm are proposed, and the reduction error analysis is carried out. The consumption of wind power and photovoltaic renewable energy is forecasted, and three different forecasting methods as exponential smoothing method, time series analysis method, and new gray forecasting method are compared, and the wind speed, irradiation intensity, and load are forecasted by these three different forecasting methods. Compared with the time series analysis method and the exponential smoothing method, the RMSE of the new grey prediction method is reduced by 127.12% and 160.59%, and the error rate is reduced by 3.16% and 4%, respectively. Based on the consumption forecast of renewable energy, this paper analyzes its sustainability from three directions economy, resource supply, and environment, and finally gives energy policy recommendations.
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