The Credibility Gap

Abstract

Energy is critical to the operation of any entity, from our homes to
the largest factories. Yet, it has become virtually impossible to predict
our energy future. With seemingly inexhaustible technological improve-
ments and the richness of our ingenuity on one hand, and borderline
political malfeasance on the other, our energy horizon is foggy at best.
Richard Ottinger effectively summarized our dilemma when he
observed, “Modern civilization and the world economy are literally
sitting on the edge of an energy precipice.” [1]
If we are to pull back from this precipice, we need to be able to
access reliable energy data. We need to break out of this pretend bubble
that is giving us false comfort. When it comes to energy, the credibility
gap has grown into a chasm. Information and misinformation abound.
We cannot outguess the politicians. Even with good intentions,
they too often act without giving sufficient attention to the unintended
consequences. They impact our day-to-day energy environment and
leave us with uncertainties that paralyze our planning process.
This article looks at the mixed messages and deliberate misdirec-
tion that surround us, and it offers some thoughts on sorting through
the complex mix of data that bombard us