Prediction and Guidance of Negative Public Opinion Dissemination Based on a Sentiment Classification Algorithm

Authors

  • Jianbao Zhang School of Marxism, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China
  • Zhengang Li Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100005, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13052/jicts2245-800X.1331

Keywords:

Sentiment classification, negative public opinion, gated recurrent unit, dissemination prediction

Abstract

The continuous spread of negative public opinion may have a detrimental impact on the stability of society, requiring timely guidance. This study used the spread of negative public opinion on Weibo as a case. Original Weibo posts related to the “Zhuhai Pedestrian Collision Case” published between 11 November 2024 and 31 November 2024 were crawled. A bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) algorithm combined with an attention mechanism called the BiGRU-Att emotion classification algorithm was proposed to classify positive and negative public opinions. The negative public opinions were used to form time series data. A BiGRU-Att-Kalman filtering algorithm was designed to predict the spread of negative public opinions. It was found that the BiGRU-Att algorithm exhibited an F1 value of 0.9248 in sentiment classification, outperforming classification algorithms such as support vector machine. The root-mean-square error and mean absolute error (MAE) values of the BiGRU-Att-Kalman filtering algorithm in the prediction of negative public opinion dissemination were 201.25 and 115.62, respectively, with R2=0.98, outperforming prediction algorithms such as GM (1,1). These results highlight the effectiveness of the proposed methods in sentiment classification and forecasting harmful opinion dissemination, thereby offering valuable insights for opinion management.

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Author Biographies

Jianbao Zhang, School of Marxism, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China

Jianbao Zhang was born in Jiangsu Province of China in 1982 and graduated from Renmin University as a doctor of philosophy in 2015. He has published more than 20 papers focusing on youth education, which is his lasting interest. He was once awarded the title of “Young Talents of Beijing Universities” and is currently the Vice Professor and Executive Dean of the School of Marxism at Beijing Wuzi University.

Zhengang Li, Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100005, China

Zhengang Li was born in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 1979 and obtained his Ph.D. in sociology from Beijing Normal University in 2016. He is now working in The Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, specializing in social policy research and social big data analysis.

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Published

2025-12-19

How to Cite

Zhang, J. ., & Li, Z. . (2025). Prediction and Guidance of Negative Public Opinion Dissemination Based on a Sentiment Classification Algorithm. Journal of ICT Standardization, 13(03), 243–256. https://doi.org/10.13052/jicts2245-800X.1331

Issue

2025: Vol 13 Iss 3

Section

Articles