Forecasting Karachi’s Air Temperature Variation: Leveraging Mobile and Multimedia Dataset for Global Warming Insights

Authors

  • Asma Zaffar Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2307-6572
  • Shakil Ahmed Department of Computer Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Aysha Rafique Department of Telecommunication Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan
  • Muhammad Imran Department of Civil Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Muhammad Amir Professor and Dean Computer and Electrical Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Vali Uddin Professor and Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13052/jmm1550-4646.2065

Keywords:

ARMA (p, q) model, Air temperature, root mean square error, skewness, kurtosis

Abstract

In Karachi, the transport and building industries have a major impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. This study is innovative in that it examines how air temperature changes over time and forecasts the maximum and minimum temperatures in Karachi. Specifically, it looks at 60 years’ worth of mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures in Karachi, spanning from (1961 to 2020) dataset classes. The monthly average air temperature in Karachi, both at its minimum and maximum, remains constant. Using dataset from the Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) and, the ARMA (p, q) model technique was used to assess forecasting and modelling the behavior of the maximum and minimum air temperatures in Karachi. The least values Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian Schwarz information criterion (SIC), and the Hannan Quinn information criterion (HIC) are used to describe how adequate the model is. Additionally, the Durbin-Watson (DW) test is used. The average monthly maximum and minimum air temperature in Karachi are strongly correlated, as indicated by DW values (<2). The lowest and maximum monthly average air temperatures in Karachi are predicted using diagnostic checking techniques such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Theil’s U-Statistics. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the air temperature and previously measured values, with Theil’s U-Statistics values for each month lying close to zero. This study is a great resource for observing how air temperature affects global warming. This study also highlights the the innovative aspect of utilizing vast datasets, possibly including those from mobile and multimedia sources, to address a critical environmental issue. It also emphasizes the predictive modelling aspect of your study, which is central to understanding and mitigating global warming effects.

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Author Biographies

Asma Zaffar, Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Asma Zaffar received the bachelor’s degree, M. Phil and Ph.D. entitled Morphology and image analysis of some solar photospheric phenomena in Mathematics from University of Karachi. Currently serve as an Associate Professor and Chairperson of the department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology. She has been HEC approved supervisor from 2019 and published numerous research articles in different national and international reputed journals. Her research area is Time series analysis, Astrophysics, Data Analysis, Homological Algebra and Climate Change.

Shakil Ahmed, Department of Computer Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Shakil Ahmed was born in Karachi, Pakistan dated March 7th, 1980. He received MS degree in Computer Systems Engineering in 2006 and BS degree in Computer Engineering in 2003. He completed his PhD in Computer and Communication System Engineering from University Putra Malaysia in 2014. He has authored and coauthored 20 research papers in various journals and conferences of international repute. He is also a life member of Pakistan Engineering Council. He is currently associated with Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology as Associate Professor, and also acting as Chairman of Department of Computer Engineering. He is also HEC approved supervisor for PhD candidates. Under his supervision, five candidates are pursuing their PhD and two candidates are doing MS thesis. Apart from chairing the department, he is also heading the Centre for Guidance, Career Planning and Placement Centre as Director since last seven years. His primary research areas are Information Security, Cryptography and Data Mining.

Aysha Rafique, Department of Telecommunication Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan

Ayesha Rafique received the bachelor’s degree in Electronic Engineering from NED University of Engineering and Technology in 2010, the Masters degree in Telecommunication Engineering from Hamdard University in 2015. Currently a PhD candidate in Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology in department of Computer Engineering. She is currently working as senior Lecturer at department of Telecommunication Engineering in Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology. Her research areas include deep learning, Climate Smart Agriculture, Neural networks and Climate change.

Muhammad Imran, Department of Civil Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Muhammad Imran did PhD from Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS Perak, Malaysia. Muhammad has 11+ years of experience as a Researcher and Structural Design Engineer. He has designed, repaired damaged structures and did the forensic analysis for O&G facilities after fire accidents. His current research is on Structural fire safety and building material and strengthening. His MS project was on the strengthening of reinforced concrete beams using CFRP.

Muhammad Amir, Professor and Dean Computer and Electrical Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Muhammad Aamir received an MS degree in Electronic Engineering (with specialization in Telecommunication) in 2002 and a BS in Electronic Engineering in 1998 from Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology Karachi. He accomplished his PhD in Electronic Engineering from Mehran University of Engineering & Technology Jamshoro in December 2014. During his PhD studies, he accomplished major part of his research work at the University of Malaga Spain under Erasmus Mundus Scholarship. He has authored and co-authored around 50 research papers and book chapters published in various journals, books and conferences of international repute including more than 15 papers with co-authorship of Professors from Mehran University of Engineering & Technology. He is a life member of Pakistan Engineering Council and senior member of IEEE and currently serving as chair of IEEE Communication Society for Karachi Chapter. He was awarded with a grant by the Ministry of Education Spain to teach at the University of Malaga which he successfully availed in May 2012. He had also served as Member of two separate National Curriculum Revision Committees constituted by Higher Education Commission (HEC) for revision of Electronic Engineering Curriculum and Telecommunication Engineering Curriculum at the National Level. He is currently associated with Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology as Professor and Dean in the Faculty of Electrical & Computer Engineering. Additionally, he is also Editor-in-Chief of Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology (HEC Recognized Journal) which is published bi-annually. He has been included in the Stanford University’s top 2% global scientists list. The US-based Stanford University released a list in October 2020 that represents the top 2% of the most-cited scientists in multiple disciplines. The list comprises around 160,000 persons from all over the world while only 243 Pakistani were included in the list so it is a unique honor that an alumni of Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology is recognized at International level within top 2% global scientists in multidisciplinary research.

Vali Uddin, Professor and Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Vali Uddin Presently serving as Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi. Vali Uddin earlier served at Hamdard University, Karachi, as Professor, (July 2011 – June 2019), Acting Vice Chancellor (from October 24 till October 31, 2013, and July 22, 2014 till August 29, 2014), Dean, Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Technology (July 2013 – May 2019), Registrar (April 2017 till October 2018), Acting Registrar, (August 2012 till August 2015) and, Director, Hamdard Institute of Information Technology, (July 2011 – July 2013). Vali Uddin earned his Ph.D. Electrical Engineering from Boston University, MA, USA.

Earlier, he did his BE (Electronics) from NED University, Karachi with First Class First Position and went on to do his MS Electrical Engineering from Boston University, Boston, MA. He was Conference Chairman of First and Second IEEE International Conference on Computer Control and Communication at PNEC-NUST, Karachi on 12–13 November 2007 and 17–18 February, 2009 respectively and Conference General Chair of 21st IEEE International Multi-topic Conference, Hamdard University Karachi held on November 01–02, 2018. He initiated BE (Electronics), BE (Telecommunication), MS (Computer Science), MS (Engineering), PhD (Computer Science) and PhD (Engineering) degree programs at Iqra University, Karachi as a Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Sciences and Technology. He initiated BE (Electrical) and BE (Mechanical) degree programs at Hamdard University as Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Sciences and Technology. He has been a key member of a team as Registrar who brought Financial turnaround of Hamdard University in less than two years. He has been a key member of a team member who developed and expanded MS and PhD programs at PNEC-NUST.

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Published

2025-02-07

How to Cite

Zaffar, A. ., Ahmed, S. ., Rafique, A. ., Imran, M. ., Amir, M. ., & Uddin, V. . (2025). Forecasting Karachi’s Air Temperature Variation: Leveraging Mobile and Multimedia Dataset for Global Warming Insights. Journal of Mobile Multimedia, 20(06), 1289–1320. https://doi.org/10.13052/jmm1550-4646.2065

Issue

2024: Vol 20 Iss 6

Section

SW2023: Massive Information by A Plethora of Devices (AIMS)

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