Models Prediction and Estimation of ENSO and Karachi Rainfall Cycles Through AR-GARCH and GARCH Process

Authors

  • Asma Zaffar Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2307-6572
  • Rizwan Khan Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Nimra Malik Business Development Manager at National Center of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA), Institute of Space Technology (IST) Islamabad, Pakistan
  • Muhammad Amir Professor and Dean Computer and Electrical Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan
  • Vali Uddin Professor and Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan
  • Muhammad Asif Professor and Dean Computing and Applied Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13052/jmm1550-4646.2064

Keywords:

GARCH (P, Q), ENSO, Karachi region, RMSE, Forecasting

Abstract

Karachi rainfall and ENSO cycles have influenced on earth climates. The effects of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the rainfall climate system of the Karachi region are analyzed. The research is working on the ENSO and rainfall Karachi region massive datasets information gathered for the period 1961–2021, which are break down into cycles (1st – 10th). The novelty of this study is to analyze the factor of the ENSO effect, which is parallel to the Karachi rainfall region, as well as other factors such as deforestation. ENSO-Rainfall Karachi region cycles are also measured via statistical techniques. The estimate Model and forecasting of volatility through the comparative study of AR(R) – GARCH (P, Q) and GARCH (P, Q) Models. Effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Karachi Rainfall as a case study suitable to research on its behavior for estimating forecast evolution of ENSO-Rainfall Karachi region cycles. The technique of AR(R) – GARCH (P, Q) and GARCH (P, Q) process is feasible for ensuring the appropriateness of the impacts on Karachi region rainfall and ENSO cycle. Different value of AR(R) – GARCH (P, Q) and GARCH (P, Q) Models is used. RMSE, MAE, MAPE and U Test are calculated to describe which technique provide the maximum accuracy of forecasting and Predictions. Most of the forecasting evaluation describe that GARCH (P, Q) has highest accuracy to predicting and forecasting ENSO and Karachi Rainfall Cycles as comparative others three models. This study confirms that, the duration of ENSO years, the tendency of Karachi region rainfall is reduced. The study shows that the relationship between ENSO-Rainfall Karachi region cycles are uncertainty. In the immediate year following the El Nino event, the July and September months, as well as the summer monsoon season, had a statistically significant 90% rainfall deficit.

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Author Biographies

Asma Zaffar, Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Asma Zaffar received the bachelor’s degree, M. Phil and Ph.D. entitled Morphology and image analysis of some solar photospheric phenomena in Mathematics from University of Karachi. Currently serve as an Associate Professor and Chairperson of the department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology. She has been HEC approved supervisor from 2019 and published numerous research articles in different national and international reputed journals. Her research area is Time series analysis, Astrophysics, Data Analysis, Homological Algebra and Climate Change.

Rizwan Khan, Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Rizwan Khan received the bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from University of Karachi and received Master entitle Impact of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Rainfall of Karachi Region from the department of Mathematics and Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology in 2023.

Nimra Malik, Business Development Manager at National Center of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA), Institute of Space Technology (IST) Islamabad, Pakistan

Nimra Malik received the bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from NED University in 2014, the master’s degree in engineering management from institute of business management. Currently working as Business Development Manager at National Center of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA), Institute of Space Technology (IST) Islamabad, Pakistan.

Muhammad Amir, Professor and Dean Computer and Electrical Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan

Muhammad Aamir received an MS degree in Electronic Engineering (with specialization in Telecommunication) in 2002 and a BS in Electronic Engineering in 1998 from Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology Karachi. He accomplished his PhD in Electronic Engineering from Mehran University of Engineering & Technology Jamshoro in December 2014. During his PhD studies, he accomplished major part of his research work at the University of Malaga Spain under Erasmus Mundus Scholarship. He has authored and co-authored around 50 research papers and book chapters published in various journals, books and conferences of international repute including more than 15 papers with co-authorship of Professors from Mehran University of Engineering & Technology. He is a life member of Pakistan Engineering Council and senior member of IEEE and currently serving as chair of IEEE Communication Society for Karachi Chapter. He was awarded with a grant by the Ministry of Education Spain to teach at the University of Malaga which he successfully availed in May 2012. He had also served as Member of two separate National Curriculum Revision Committees constituted by Higher Education Commission (HEC) for revision of Electronic Engineering Curriculum and Telecommunication Engineering Curriculum at the National Level. He is currently associated with Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology as Professor and Dean in the Faculty of Electrical & Computer Engineering. Additionally, he is also Editor-in-Chief of Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology (HEC Recognized Journal) which is published bi-annually. He has been included in the Stanford University’s top 2% global scientists list. The US-based Stanford University released a list in October 2020 that represents the top 2% of the most-cited scientists in multiple disciplines. The list comprises around 160,000 persons from all over the world while only 243 Pakistani were included in the list so it is a unique honor that an alumni of Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology is recognized at International level within top 2% global scientists in multidisciplinary research.

Vali Uddin, Professor and Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan

Vali Uddin Presently serving as Vice Chancellor, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi. Vali Uddin earlier served at Hamdard University, Karachi, as Professor, (July 2011 – June 2019), Acting Vice Chancellor (from October 24 till October 31, 2013, and July 22, 2014 till August 29, 2014), Dean, Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Technology (July 2013 – May 2019), Registrar (April 2017 till October 2018), Acting Registrar, (August 2012 till August 2015) and, Director, Hamdard Institute of Information Technology, (July 2011 – July 2013). Vali Uddin earned his Ph.D. Electrical Engineering from Boston University, MA, USA.

Earlier, he did his BE (Electronics) from NED University, Karachi with First Class First Position and went on to do his MS Electrical Engineering from Boston University, Boston, MA. He was Conference Chairman of First and Second IEEE International Conference on Computer Control and Communication at PNEC-NUST, Karachi on 12–13 November 2007 and 17-18 February, 2009 respectively and Conference General Chair of 21st IEEE International Multi-topic Conference, Hamdard University Karachi held on November 01 – 02, 2018. He initiated BE (Electronics), BE (Telecommunication), MS (Computer Science), MS (Engineering), PhD (Computer Science) and PhD (Engineering) degree programs at Iqra University, Karachi as a Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Sciences and Technology. He initiated BE (Electrical) and BE (Mechanical) degree programs at Hamdard University as Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Sciences and Technology. He has been a key member of a team as Registrar who brought Financial turnaround of Hamdard University in less than two years. He has been a key member of a team member who developed and expanded MS and PhD programs at PNEC-NUST.

Muhammad Asif, Professor and Dean Computing and Applied Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan

Muhammad Asif is currently working as a Professor and Dean of Computing and Applied Sciences, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology. He has Director Quality Enhancement Cell at Ziauddin University, Karachi, Pakistan. He is also the Principal Investigator of Data Acquisition, Processing and Predictive Laboratory (DAPPA), National Center in Big Data and Cloud Computing. In his lab, he is working on vehicle and traffic flow modeling and monitoring and environmental data collection to monitor environmental degradation and climate change using smart technologies with the blend of artificial intelligence. Dr. Muhammad Asif received B.S. degree in Biomedical Engineering from the Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan in 2002, and M.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Malaysia, in 2007. In USM, he worked with USM Robotics Research Group (URRG) on various underwater robotics and vision systems. In 2015, we received his Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from NUST. He organized and participated in various robotics competition on national and international levels like ROBOCON, ROBOCOM, NERC, etc. He has more than 50 research publications in international and national journals and conferences.

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Published

2025-02-07

How to Cite

Zaffar, A. ., Khan, R. ., Malik, N. ., Amir, M. ., Uddin, V. ., & Asif, M. . (2025). Models Prediction and Estimation of ENSO and Karachi Rainfall Cycles Through AR-GARCH and GARCH Process. Journal of Mobile Multimedia, 20(06), 1251–1288. https://doi.org/10.13052/jmm1550-4646.2064

Issue

2024: Vol 20 Iss 6

Section

SW2023: Massive Information by A Plethora of Devices (AIMS)

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